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The INGV-CMCC seasonal prediction system: Improved ocean initial conditions

TitoloThe INGV-CMCC seasonal prediction system: Improved ocean initial conditions
Tipo di pubblicazioneArticolo su Rivista peer-reviewed
Anno di Pubblicazione2010
AutoriAlessandri, Andrea, Borrelli A., Masina S., Cherchi A., Gualdi S., Navarra A., di Pietro P., and Carril A.F.
RivistaMonthly Weather Review
Volume138
Paginazione2930-2952
ISSN00270644
Parole chiaveaccuracy assessment, Atmospheric temperature, Boreal winters, Climatology, Control simulation, data assimilation, Data processing, El Nino, ensemble forecasting, Ensemble forecasts, extratropical environment, Extratropics, Forecasting, global perspective, Global scale, Initial conditions, marine atmosphere, Nickel compounds, Oceanography, Optimal interpolation, Pacific Ocean, Pacific Ocean (Tropical), prediction, Reduced order, Salinity, sea surface temperature, Sea surface temperatures, Seasonal prediction, seasonal variation, Subsurface profile, Surface climate, temperature anomaly, tropical meteorology, Tropics, Weather forecasting, winter
Abstract

The development of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)-Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) Seasonal Prediction System (SPS) is documented. In this SPS the ocean initial-conditions estimation includes a reduced-order optimal interpolation procedure for the assimilation of temperature and salinity profiles at the global scale. Nine-member ensemble forecasts have been produced for the period 1991-2003 for two starting dates per year in order to assess the impact of the subsurface assimilation in the ocean for initialization. Comparing the results with control simulations (i.e., without as-similation of subsurface profiles during ocean initialization), it is shown that the improved ocean initialization increases the skill in the prediction of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures of the system for boreal winter forecasts. Considering the forecast of the 1997/98 El Niño, the data assimilation in the ocean initial conditions leads to a considerable improvement in the representation of its onset and development. The results pre-sented in this paper indicate a better prediction of global-scale surface climate anomalies for the forecasts started in November, probably because of the improvement in the tropical Pacific. For boreal winter, sig-nificant increases in the capability of the system to discriminate above-normal and below-normal temperature anomalies are shown in both the tropics and extratropics. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.

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URLhttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-77958456200&doi=10.1175%2f2010MWR3178.1&partnerID=40&md5=cbc78752d14e8320f39b3786b37cfb91
DOI10.1175/2010MWR3178.1
Citation KeyAlessandri20102930