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Predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in Italy: A model based on asbestos consumption figures supports results from age-period-cohort models

TitoloPredictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in Italy: A model based on asbestos consumption figures supports results from age-period-cohort models
Tipo di pubblicazioneArticolo su Rivista peer-reviewed
Anno di Pubblicazione2005
AutoriMarinaccio, A., Montanaro F., Mastrantonio Marina, Uccelli Raffaella, Altavista P., Nesti M., Costantini A.S., and Gorini G.
RivistaInternational Journal of Cancer
Volume115
Paginazione142-147
ISSN00207136
Parole chiave80 and over, adult, Age Factors, aged, article, Asbestos, cancer mortality, cohort analysis, Cohort studies, crocidolite, diagnostic error, environmental exposure, Europe, human, Humans, Italy, major clinical study, male, mesothelioma, Middle Aged, Models, occupational exposure, pleura cancer, pleura mesothelioma, Pleural Neoplasms, priority journal, Statistical, Time Factors
Abstract

Italy was the second main asbestos producer in Europe, after the Soviet Union, until the end of the 1980s, and raw asbestos was imported on a large scale until 1992. The Italian pattern of asbestos consumption lags on average about 10 years behind the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom and the Nordic countries. Measures to reduce exposure were introduced in the mid-1970s in some workplaces. In 1986, limitations were imposed on the use of crocidolite and in 1992 asbestos was definitively banned. We have used primary pleural cancer mortality figures (1970-1999) to predict mortality from mesothelioma among Italian men in the next 30 years by age-cohort-period models and by a model based on asbestos consumption figures. The pleural cancer/mesothelioma ratio and mesothelioma misdiagnosis in the past were taken into account in the analysis. Estimated risks of birth cohorts born after 1945 decrease less quickly in Italy than in other Western countries. The findings predict a peak with about 800 mesothelioma annual deaths in the period 2012-2024. Results estimated using age-period-cohort models were similar to those obtained from the asbestos consumption model. © 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

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URLhttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-17644387735&doi=10.1002%2fijc.20820&partnerID=40&md5=69c367d2ae731e10ff7ac08d360ac1a1
DOI10.1002/ijc.20820
Citation KeyMarinaccio2005142