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Egypt's Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge: Present and Future Conditions

TitleEgypt's Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge: Present and Future Conditions
Publication TypeArticolo su Rivista peer-reviewed
Year of Publication2020
AuthorsTorresan, S., Furlan E., Critto A., Michetti Melania, and Marcomini A.
JournalIntegrated Environmental Assessment and Management
Volume16
Pagination761-772
ISSN15513793
KeywordsClimate change, Egypt, flooding, Floods, Sea level rise
Abstract

We assess the relative vulnerability of the Mediterranean shoreline of Egypt (about 1000 km in length) to climate change (i.e., sea-level rise [SLR], storm surge flooding, and coastal erosion) by using a Climate-improved Coastal Vulnerability Index (CCVI). We integrate information relative to a multidimensional set of physical, geological, and socioeconomic variables, and add to the mainstream literature the consideration of both a reference and a climate change scenario, assuming the representative concentration pathway 8.5 W/m2 (RCP8.5) for the 21st century in the Mediterranean region. Results report that approximately 1% ( 43 km²) of the mapped shoreline is classifiable as having a high or very high vulnerability, whereas approximately 80% (4652 km²) shows very low vulnerability. As expected, exposure to inundation and erosion is especially relevant in highly developed and urbanized coastal areas. Along the shoreline, while the Nile Delta region is the most prone area to coastal erosion and permanent or occasional inundations (both in the reference and in the climate scenario), results show the Western Desert area to be less vulnerable due to its geological characteristics (i.e., rocky and cliffed coasts, steeper coastal slope). The application of the CCVI to the coast of Egypt can be considered as a first screening of the hot-spot risk areas at the national scale. The results of the analysis, including vulnerability maps and indicators, can be used to support the development of climate adaptation and integrated coastal zone management strategies. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2020;16:761–772. © 2020 SETAC. © 2020 SETAC

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URLhttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85086456249&doi=10.1002%2fieam.4280&partnerID=40&md5=51893020e276426592486a1cb5744b70
DOI10.1002/ieam.4280
Citation KeyTorresan2020761