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A Sensitivity Study of a Bayesian Inversion Model Used to Estimate Emissions of Synthetic Greenhouse Gases at the European Scale

TitleA Sensitivity Study of a Bayesian Inversion Model Used to Estimate Emissions of Synthetic Greenhouse Gases at the European Scale
Publication TypeArticolo su Rivista peer-reviewed
Year of Publication2024
AuthorsAnnadate, Saurabh, Falasca Serena, Cesari Rita, Giostra Umberto, Maione Michela, and Arduini Jgor
JournalAtmosphere
Volume15
Type of ArticleArticle
KeywordsAir conditioning, Atmospheric inverse modeling, atmospheric modeling, Background mixing ratios, Bayesian analysis, Bayesian inversion, emission inventory, Environmental impact, Europe, FLEXINVERT+, Fluorinated greenhouse gas, Gas emissions, greenhouse gas, Greenhouse gases, Greenhouses gas, Inverse modelling, Inverse problems, Inversion models, Mixing, mixing ratio, Regional emission, Sensitivity analysis, Sensitivity studies, Uncertainty analysis
Abstract

To address and mitigate the environmental impacts of synthetic greenhouse gases it’s crucial to quantify their emissions to the atmosphere on different spatial scales. Atmospheric Inverse modelling is becoming a widely used method to provide observation-based estimates of greenhouse gas emissions with the potential to provide an independent verification tool for national emission inventories. A sensitivity study of the FLEXINVERT+ model for the optimisation of the spatial and temporal emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases at the regional-to-country scale is presented. A test compound HFC-134a, the most widely used refrigerant in mobile air conditioning systems, has been used to evaluate its European emissions in 2011 to be compared with a previous study. Sensitivity tests on driving factors like—observation selection criteria, prior data, background mixing ratios, and station selection—assessed the model’s performance in replicating measurements, reducing uncertainties, and estimating country-specific emissions. Across all experiments, good prior (0.5–0.8) and improved posterior (0.6–0.9) correlations were achieved, emphasizing the reduced sensitivity of the inversion setup to different a priori information and the determining role of observations in constraining the emissions.The posterior results were found to be very sensitive to background mixing ratios, with even slight increases in the baseline leading to significant decrease of emissions. © 2023 by the authors.

Notes

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URLhttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85183314787&doi=10.3390%2fatmos15010051&partnerID=40&md5=e0354499186899bcee4d8b6127c02d28
DOI10.3390/atmos15010051
Citation KeyAnnadate2024