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The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: evaluation of precipitation

TitleThe first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: evaluation of precipitation
Publication TypeArticolo su Rivista peer-reviewed
Year of Publication2021
AuthorsBan, Nikolina, Caillaud Cécile, Coppola Erika, Pichelli Emanuela, Sobolowski Stefan, Adinolfi Marianna, Ahrens Bodo, Alias Antoinette, Anders Ivonne, Bastin Sophie, Belušić Danijel, Berthou Ségolène, Brisson Erwan, Cardoso Rita M., Chan Steven C., Christensen Ole Bøssing, Fernández Jesús, Fita Lluís, Frisius Thomas, Gašparac Goran, Giorgi Filippo, Goergen Klaus, Haugen Jan Erik, Hodnebrog Øivind, Kartsios Stergios, Katragkou Eleni, Kendon Elizabeth J., Keuler Klaus, Lavin-Gullon Alvaro, Lenderink Geert, Leutwyler David, Lorenz Torge, Maraun Douglas, Mercogliano Paola, Milovac Josipa, Panitz Hans-Juergen, Raffa Mario, Remedio Armelle Reca, Schär Christoph, Soares Pedro M. M., Srnec Lidija, Steensen Birthe Marie, Stocchi Paolo, Tölle Merja H., Truhetz Heimo, Vergara-Temprado Jesus, de Vries Hylke, Warrach-Sagi Kirsten, Wulfmeyer Volker, and Zander Mar Janne
JournalClimate Dynamics
Volume57
Pagination275 – 302
Type of ArticleArticle
ISSN09307575
Abstract

Here we present the first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale horizontal grid spacing over a decade long period. A total of 23 simulations run with a horizontal grid spacing of ∼ 3 km, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, and performed by 22 European research groups are analysed. Six different regional climate models (RCMs) are represented in the ensemble. The simulations are compared against available high-resolution precipitation observations and coarse resolution (∼ 12 km) RCMs with parameterized convection. The model simulations and observations are compared with respect to mean precipitation, precipitation intensity and frequency, and heavy precipitation on daily and hourly timescales in different seasons. The results show that kilometer-scale models produce a more realistic representation of precipitation than the coarse resolution RCMs. The most significant improvements are found for heavy precipitation and precipitation frequency on both daily and hourly time scales in the summer season. In general, kilometer-scale models tend to produce more intense precipitation and reduced wet-hour frequency compared to coarse resolution models. On average, the multi-model mean shows a reduction of bias from ∼ −40% at 12 km to ∼ −3% at 3 km for heavy hourly precipitation in summer. Furthermore, the uncertainty ranges i.e. the variability between the models for wet hour frequency is reduced by half with the use of kilometer-scale models. Although differences between the model simulations at the kilometer-scale and observations still exist, it is evident that these simulations are superior to the coarse-resolution RCM simulations in the representing precipitation in the present-day climate, and thus offer a promising way forward for investigations of climate and climate change at local to regional scales. © 2021, The Author(s).

Notes

Cited by: 156; All Open Access, Hybrid Gold Open Access

URLhttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85104159180&doi=10.1007%2fs00382-021-05708-w&partnerID=40&md5=844a020a1d4628ead2c70ac0c3c3c3b2
DOI10.1007/s00382-021-05708-w
Citation KeyBan2021275